March 7, 2026
If you are a Level 1 or Level 2 H-1B registrant, you have probably seen the panic posts: Level 1 is dead. Just switch jobs if you want to win. The rich always win.
We get it. It feels discouraging. But let us look at the actual data.
What Actually Changed
Starting February 27, 2026, the H-1B lottery is no longer purely random. Each registration now gets a weighted number of entries based on the wage level:
- Level 4 (highest wage): 4 entries in the lottery
- Level 3: 3 entries
- Level 2: 2 entries
- Level 1 (entry-level): 1 entry
What DHS Actually Estimates (Real Numbers)
The Department of Homeland Security published their estimates when they announced this rule. Here is what they expect:
Level 4: 61.16% estimated selection rate
Level 3: 45.87% estimated selection rate
Level 2: 30.58% estimated selection rate
Level 1: 15.29% estimated selection rate
Context: What This Actually Means
Here is the truth: 15.29% is not zero. In fact, for the past several years, the overall selection rate has been around 25-35%. That means if you are a Level 1 registrant, your odds are lower than average — but you are not out of the game.
Your Strategy Depends on Your Level
- If you are Level 1: Consider negotiating a raise with your current employer. Even a small increase to Level 2 doubles your entries. If that is not possible, do not panic — you still have a real chance.
- If you are Level 2: You are in a reasonable position. Your estimated 30.58% is close to historical averages.
- If you are Level 3 or 4: You have an advantage. But it is not a guarantee. File early and correctly.
Key Dates You Cannot Miss
- March 4-19, 2026: H-1B registration window (now open)
- March 31, 2026 (earliest): Selection results announced
- 90 days from selection: Filing deadline
- October 1, 2026: H-1B employment start date
The new lottery system changes the game — but it is not the apocalypse. Level 1 registrants still have a real chance. Book a free consultation and we will review your specific situation.
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Book Strategy SessionAbout the Author
Jinwen Liu
Managing Attorney
Attorney Jinwen Liu is the founder of Yingzhong Law Offices in San Jose, California, with 10+ years of U.S. immigration law experience. She focuses on EB-1A extraordinary ability, NIW, EB-5 investor, and H-1B petitions, and is recognized for her strategic case framing, meticulous evidence preparation, and complex RFE defense. A former immigrant herself, she provides bilingual counsel in English and Chinese. She received legal training at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law and is a member of AILA.
